The euro zone is limping forward, growing by a meager 0.3% in its third quarter only by just 0.3 percent (an annualized rate of 1.2 percent) One tiny member of the club’s 19 members is speeding ahead. In less than two years after Ireland was released from its humiliating bailout the economy is recovering. After growing by 5.2 percent in 2014, GDP grew by 7.0 percent in the first quarter of 2015, compared to the same period one year ago. Although it’s a welcome thing however, the speed of the current upswing reveals the volatile nature of the comparatively small and open Irish economy. It is rebounding from a severe slump that came after a previous period of accelerating growth. The idea of the Irish economy could bounce back so quickly was dismissed as a fantasy two years back. Irish banks went through a massive bust during the financial crisis , and required a bailout in the amount of EUR64 billion ($89 billion) roughly two-fifths of the GDP. The bank’s troubles meant that the Irish state itself had to be saved by the EU as well as the IMF at the end of 2010. Between the pre-crisis high in the latter half of 2007 and the trough towards the end of 2009, the economy slowed by 11.2 percent (see the chart). A rebound in the following two years was slowed and the economy shrank in 2012 and in the first half of 2013.
Ireland’s ambitions in trade
This isn’t really about getting new international partners after being left by Mother Britannia, though. Tanaiste the Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney has clearly distinguished between Brexit and the expansion of his department. In the beginning of January, he stated that “while aware of the enormous difficulties our country is facing with Brexit, it is imperative that we think about the in the future.” This suggests that the primary motivation of this “most expansive renewal of the Ireland’s worldwide presence in the past” is to ensure that Ireland has the capability to safeguard its interests. The necessity to diversify Ireland’s trade structure is an equally significant factor. The current trade partners of Ireland are turning to new markets as new markets open their doors to competition from outside.
In the United States, the country that accounts for less than 25% of Irish exports-President Donald Trump is urging his citizens to stay away from imported goods and services. The possibility of a trade war between the EU and US is in the air, a war which would mean that Irish businesses will suffer greatly. The relationship between the UK and with the EU — if it’s to be formalized in any way–is to be decided. Uncertainty is rampant.
To support the International Order
In this sense, Global Ireland has two goals: to stop the deterioration of international order and to strengthen the state’s ability to meet similar issues in the future. Irish engagement with the New Hanseatic League provides an example of the first: Dublin has enthusiastically embraced the grouping of fiscally-conservative Northern EU states who have banded together after the loss of London’s restraining influence on Brussels. The second objective-to enhance the state’s ability to react through the restructuring of its structure: more missions will adopt this “Ireland House” structure, which will allow for closer collaboration between departments and agencies. The ECFR’s calculator for coalitions shows an alarmingly disjointed Ireland in the post-Brexit EU. Through strengthening embassies in Berlin and Paris with mid- or high-level diplomats, Dublin hopes to improve relations with the power brokers of the nation and improve communication channels during emergencies.
The most significant risk for Global Ireland is that political pressure will result in its demise. The government could be under the pressure of reducing spending on it, in the event of a catastrophic Brexit scenario that is currently predicted to reduce Irish GDP growth by 4.25 percent in 2023. If this scenario is not prevented, what will the success of Global Ireland look like? Irish businesses are expanding all over the world through 2025. A successful term on UN Security Council sees Dublin promote openness and reject intolerance around the world. The border between Ireland and the United States remains in peace and is open to the world as of it is today. A volatile EU calms itself, and the uprising of populism eases.