Paul Nuttall’s election as UKIP leader Paul Nuttall as leader of UKIP is described as an “game changer” for Labour. Image: Flickr/European Parliament. Certain rights reserved.It is now accepted belief in the majority of the Labour Party — from the left to the right that UKIP is a serious danger to Labour’s core voting in those areas of north England which were able to vote Leave. Chuka Umunna told the Times that the party was in “no secure seats” as a “senior Corbyn ally’ also mentioned in the same report. Frank Field described the election of Paul Nuttall as a “game changer” for Labour. and Stephen Kinnock spoke in similar words about the way Labour’s “obsession” of diversity could affect its chances of winning elections in its northern core areas.
The possibility of this becoming common knowledge both on the left and right within the Labour Party affirms the adage that lies could travel around the globe, and the truth puts the shoes on’. Although the risk to the Labour Party’s support from UKIP shouldn’t be dismissed, it should be based on a solid review of the evidence at be considered. Do we have a solid basis to think UKIP could pose an imminent threat to Labour’s current coalition? If we examine certain evidence, it is clear that the issue is a kind like a ‘phantom menace’. People who are promoting this idea have a specific plan that should the political party to adhere to it, would be disastrous.
There are no prizes for second place
Let’s begin by looking at the party’s historic general election of 2015. UKIP celebrated the results as the beginning of their “2020 strategy,” which builds on the place they won in the 2015 election to run local and competitive campaigns the next time around.
UKIP was successful in getting a few second positions. They were second overall in 120 seats. However, a large portion of them (75) comprised Tory with only 44 of them were Labour represented. UKIP tends to be in a distant third. In the majority of instances, they need an enormous swing in order to win seats. As per Steven Ayres the average majority of a candidate who won the election of general elections was 11.480. But for UKIP with more than 80 percent of their second-place places (100 from 120) the winner above the average national to prevail by a landslide:
Where do UKIP the UKIP voters originate from?
While being referred to as an imminent menace to Labour for a long time, the vast majority of portion of UKIP support is made up of former Conservative supporters. Although UKIP has begun to broaden their appeal to Labour supporters, they have achieved this from a small base. In spring 2014 YouGov revealed that just 11 percent of UKIP supporters were able to vote for Labour in the Labour Party in the 2010 election. In the final quarter of 2014, these same pollswere speaking of a greater percentage of former Labour supporters, with as much as 23 per cent UKIP supporters voting in favour of Labour in the 2010 election. Labour Party in 2010. However, this was dwarfed however by the 47 per cent of former Tories who now are UKIP supporters.
If you want a firm stance regarding immigration are likely to choose the real thing, not a political party trying to appeal to all segments of the electorate.
Based on Electoral Calculus at the 2015 general election, UKIP voters who migrated from other parties was four times as likely vote Tory in the 2010 election in comparison to those who vote Labour. It is true that the right-populist ethos of UKIP has enabled it to connect different groups of voters which presents challenges to progressives. However, this shouldn’t detract from the problems they pose for the Tories particularly when it comes to the Brexit negotiations.